Lieutenant-General Asim Munir has replaced General Qamar Bajwa as Pakistan’s army chief. The delay in the announcement, an unstable political situation in Islamabad, the continuing militancy in the western provinces, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) revoking the ceasefire, and tensions with the Taliban should be the immediate concerns for him. What is being projected as the ‘Bajwa legacy’ is likely to be his primary challenge. Lt. Gen. Munir is inheriting the old issues plaguing civil-military relations as well as those that crept up during Gen. Bajwa’s tenure.
There are six significant challenges for Lt. Gen. Munir. The first is Imran Khan. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Mr. Khan would not have succeeded in the 2018 elections had it not been for the establishment. ‘Project Imran’ should have been set in motion after Gen. Bajwa took office in November 2016 and after the Supreme Court disqualified Nawaz Sharif following the Panama Papers expose in 2017. The establishment should have decided to back the PTI as a replacement for the Sharifs’ Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Many believe that the rise of the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), its violent protests in Faizabad in 2017, and its subsequent political participation were a part of political engineering in Punjab. The TLP cut into the PML-N’s traditional support base in Punjab, providing political space to the PTI. The 2018 election result was stunning: Mr. Khan won Punjab and formed the government in Islamabad. The establishment should have been elated by the removal of the PML-N from Islamabad and Punjab. However, despite proclaiming to be on the same page, Mr. Khan seemed to be on a different page. The delay in extending Gen. Bajwa’s tenure in 2019 and the differences between the army and government over choosing the new Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief in 2021 showed their differences. Finally, in April 2022, Mr. Khan had to leave after failing to prove a majority against the collective political onslaught of the Pakistan Democratic Movement. He blamed the establishment and a foreign conspiracy. The fallout with the general headquarters (GHQ) was complete when the Director-General-ISI and the DG-Inter Services Public Relations Pakistan denounced Mr. Khan’s anti-establishment narrative at a press meet. Mr. Khan said the denouncement was foolish and later accused a military officer of being part of a plot to assassinate him. How will the new army chief deal with Mr. Khan? In 2017, Mr. Khan did not have a wide support base outside Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, especially in Punjab. However, the recent results of the bypolls should hint at a new populist Khan.