China has upped the ante on its military pressure on Taiwan, intensifying military drills east of the self-governing island to prepare for a blockade aimed at forcing eventual reunification.
This month, Nikkei reported that China has dramatically increased military drills simulating a blockade of Taiwan since former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island last August.
Nikkei notes that before Pelosi’s visit, Chinese ships and planes have become more active in the Western Pacific, in the Philippine Sea east of Taiwan.
The paper also notes the deployment last December of China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier east of Taiwan, followed in April this year by deployment of the carrier Shandong in the same region.
Nikkei notes that in April, a Chinese TB001 combat drone was confirmed east of and around Taiwan on a highly unusual flight path, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. It also says that in May, a BZK005 reconnaissance drone was spotted off the east coast of Taiwan.
Nikkei also says that sightings of Chinese aircraft in the airspace east of Taiwan have substantially increased since March, noting that from Pelosi’s visit until February 2023, they were observed no more than three days a month. The number gradually increased from 10 days in April to 12 in May, six in June, and 12 in July.
Asia Times has noted that these intensified drills may be part of China’s “squeeze and relax” strategy against Taiwan, consisting of a strategy of military drills which amount to blockades, with a tighter military noose increasing the threat level. Increased military pressure on Taiwan would be followed by some relaxation, a pause for reflection, and talks, with the message being that a large military exercise could become the real thing at any time.
Whether China will invade Taiwan any time soon is a matter of intense debate among academics, policymakers, and military commanders, presenting compelling arguments on both sides.