In a recent report by investigative platform Drop Site, it has been alleged that Pakistan has secretly permitted China to establish a military base in Balochistan’s strategically important port city of Gwadar. The investigation, carried out by journalists Ryan Grim and Murtaza Hassan, suggests that the cash-strapped government in Islamabad has made quiet concessions to Beijing to allow the future deployment of Chinese military personnel in exchange for critical financial and military support.
The report claims that Pakistan, facing economic and political instability, is increasingly turning to China for help. Internal documents reportedly detail high-level discussions from 2023, indicating that Pakistan’s leadership, under pressure from a crippling economic crisis, has agreed to permit China to build a militarized naval base in Gwadar. The base, if established, would mark a significant shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy, and the quiet way this deal has allegedly been struck has raised concerns about Pakistan’s national sovereignty and the implications of the new deal on the people of Balochistan, who have long resisted what they call Chinese ‘exploitative’ and ‘colonial’ projects in their land.
The Strategic Value of Gwadar
Gwadar, located on the shore of the Arabian Sea in Balochistan’s south, holds immense geopolitical importance. Sitting near the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the port is a gateway to vital shipping lanes. For China, it offers a direct route to the Arabian Sea, bypassing the chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, which is heavily monitored by U.S. forces.
Gwadar is a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While initially framed as an economic partnership, the port has been a subject of controversy and speculation. Analysts argue that the potential militarization of Gwadar through the establishment of a Chinese base could have far-reaching geopolitical implications, including strengthening China’s influence in the Middle East and challenging U.S. dominance in the region.
The report argues that operating a militarized naval base in Balochistan has been a long-standing Chinese demand. In previous rounds of dialogue between the Chinese and the Pakistani representatives, Pakistani officials resisted accepting China’s demand, claiming it would jeopardize Pakistan’s national sovereignty and international standing. But in the latest round of meetings, hosted in Islamabad this January, Pakistan’s much-weakened government reportedly acquiesced to the Chinese demand, agreeing to the future deployment of Chinese military assets and troops at the port in Gwadar.
The report says that the talks stalled on the issue of how to implement the agreement, kicking the can down the road to the next major meeting between the two countries.
Baloch Resistance
For the people of Balochistan, the news of a potential Chinese military presence in their region is not just another headline — it’s the continuation of what many describe as “exploitation” and “colonialism.” Baloch nationalists and ‘pro-independence’ armed groups have been resisting both Pakistan and China for years. To them, the developments in Gwadar and the broader CPEC project represent “imperial” and “colonial” ambitions.
Since the launch of CPEC, Baloch armed groups have frequently targeted both Pakistani and Chinese interests. They accuse both governments of looting Balochistan’s natural resources while offering little to no benefit to the local population. They argue that much of the economic activity generated by CPEC has been channeled to Punjab, Pakistan’s political and economic heartland, pushing the Baloch people further into poverty.
The local populations have watched as roads and infrastructure were built, displacing them from their homes and livelihoods. Protests have often been met with force, further widening the divide between the local population and the Pakistani government. For Baloch nationalists, the presence of a Chinese military base would only cement their belief that their land is being treated as a geopolitical pawn in a game played between Pakistan and China.
The Baloch people, many of whom already feel resentment towards Pakistan and China, will likely view this development with resentment and resistance. The further militarization of Gwadar will lead to more displacement, security crackdowns, and the suppression of local dissent.
The report further shows that in the wake of several deadly attacks on Chinese officials and engineers, Pakistan has been considering Beijing’s request for the creation of joint Chinese-Pakistani security companies to provide security to Chinese officials in Pakistan.
The Growing China-Pakistan Dependence
Over the years, Pakistan’s relationship with China has grown from a strategic alliance into a lifeline. Islamabad’s financial woes have left it heavily reliant on Beijing, especially as Western aid and investment have dwindled. The Drop Site report points out that China is now Pakistan’s largest arms supplier and its key economic partner, making it increasingly difficult for Pakistan to push back against Chinese demands.
CPEC, initially seen as a transformative project, has left Pakistan with significant debts and few of the expected economic benefits. Now, Pakistan seems to have little choice but to acquiesce to China’s interests, including those related to military strategy. The alleged military base is just the latest sign of Pakistan’s growing dependency on China.
At the same time, China has its own strategic interests in the region. A military base in Gwadar would give Beijing a foothold in the Arabian Sea, expanding its reach across the Indian Ocean and securing key maritime routes for Chinese trade. For China, this is about more than just economic expansion — it’s about securing its place as a dominant power in the region.
The Human Impact
While much of the focus is on geopolitics, the people of Gwadar and the broader Balochistan region continue to bear the brunt of these developments. For many Baloch people, promises of development and prosperity ring hollow. They see the roads being built, and the ports being developed, but none of it translates into better jobs, schools, or healthcare for them. Instead, they are displaced, policed, and, in many cases, silenced.
The report from Drop Site raises the question of what this alleged military base will mean for the local population. Will it bring more displacement? Will the already fragile situation in Balochistan deteriorate further as the Baloch armed groups ramp up attacks on Chinese and Pakistani interests? These are questions that will weigh heavily on the people of Balochistan, who feel they’ve lost agency over their own land and resources.
What Comes Next?
According to the Drop Site report, while the agreement for the base has allegedly been made, there’s no clear timeline for when or how it will materialize. Still, the implications are profound. A Chinese military base in Gwadar could reshape the regional balance of power, drawing Pakistan deeper into China’s orbit while potentially alienating the U.S. and its allies. The news will certainly be met with resistance from the Baloch nationalist and ‘pro-independence’ groups, and lead to more frequent and intense attacks on Chinese and Pakistani interests in Balochistan.
Opposition parties in Pakistan are likely to voice strong concerns once the news becomes public. Critics argue that Pakistan’s increasing reliance on China undermines its sovereignty and opens the door to foreign control over critical infrastructure. The alleged deal, if confirmed, will also spark a new wave of protests in Balochistan, where people feel trapped between two powers — neither of which seems to care about their well-being.